華爾街:Galaxy S4遜於預期

時間 :11:02 取得文章短網址

文章分類 : Apps, Samsung

華爾街分析師曾被 三星的營銷攻勢所打動和征服,但現在卻有很多分析師承認,他們無法對 Samsung 的智能手機銷售前景感到樂觀。與此同時, Samsung 在高端智能手機市場上所佔據的龐大份額也曾導致某些分析師無視一些行業數據,這些數據表明高端智能手機市場正在迅速趨向飽和,而蘋果 iPhone 5 等手機的銷售表現已經因此受損。

Galaxy S4 銷售差於預期,可能與用家對未來 iOS7 及新 iPhone 憧憬有關。

Galaxy S4 銷售差於預期,可能與用家對未來 iOS7 及新 iPhone 憧憬有關。

華爾街分析師曾被 三星的營銷攻勢所打動和征服,但現在卻有很多分析師承認,他們無法對 Samsung 的智能手機銷售前景感到樂觀。與此同時, Samsung 在高端智能手機市場上所佔據的龐大份額也曾導致某些分析師無視一些行業數據,這些數據表明高端智能手機市場正在迅速趨向飽和,而蘋果 iPhone 5 等手機的銷售表現已經因此受損。

友利投資證券公司(Woori Investment & Securities)是韓國最大的證券公司之一,該公司已經在 6 月 5 日下調了對 Samsung 的盈利和目標價預期,而友利投資證券只不過是第一家調整預期的公司,隨後許多投資公司都紛紛下調了預期,其中包括摩根大通、摩根士丹利和高盛集團等,這些大型投行都下調了 Samsung 旗艦智能手機 Galaxy S4 的銷量預期。

Samsung 移動設備部門是該公司旗下盈利能力最高的一個部門,但由於 Galaxy S4 的銷量預期已被最高下調 30% 的緣故,投資者正開始對該部門的未來前景感到擔心。對於 Samsung 這家韓國 IT 巨頭的投資者來說,他們已經蒙受了一部分損失。在遭遇降級的一個星期時間裡, Samsung 的股價大幅下跌,到現在為止這家公司的市值已經蒸發了將近 200 億美元。

投資公司 KB Investment & Securities 分析師 Byun Hanjoon 說道「我要說的是,包括我在內的大多數預測人士都曾認為, Samsung 股票將會再度超越市場表現 — 因為 Samsung 就是 Samsung 。 Samsung 此前的表現曾超出分析師預期,這促使許多人認為 Samsung 一定會利用 Galaxy S4 再度取得超越大市的表現。」

銷量預期遭下調

Samsung 在今年 4 月底宣佈推出 Galaxy S4 智能手機,隨後一個月時間裡這種最新旗艦智能手機的銷售量達到了 1000 萬部,表現優於 Galaxy S III。但分析師現在指出,高端智能手機市場的增長速度正在放緩,尤其是歐洲和韓國的前景更加黯淡。這些分析師還進一步指出,事實上 Galaxy S4 還缺少真正能讓人耳目一新的要素。

高盛集團分析師 Michael Bang 在一份報告中說道:「其結果是,分析師對 Samsung 的盈利預期非常樂觀。應該承認,包括高盛集團在內的華爾街分析師都將第一季度中( Samsung )的盈利動量外推到了整個財年。」

而在今天,大多數分析師都已經將 Galaxy S4 智能手機的月度銷售量預期數字下調到了 700 萬部左右,遠低於此前平均預期的 1000 萬部。其中,美國銀行美林公司已經將其今年 Galaxy S4 的銷售量預期數字下調了 500 萬部,至 6500 萬部。有些分析師指出,如果 Galaxy S4 智能手機今年的銷售量確實會比此前預期減少 500 萬部,則意味著 Samsung 的運營利潤將會減少 10 億美元左右。

「 Galaxy S4 的銷售表現穩固,現在的問題是有些分析師曾對其作出過過高的預期,然後又下調了預期。」 Samsung 移動設備部門總裁 J.K. Shin  在上週接受採訪時說道。

據 Thomson Reuters StarMine 公佈的數據顯示,在過去一個月時間裡,43 名追蹤 Samsung 的分析師中已經有 17 人下調了對這家公司的盈利預期,從而導致這些分析師對 4 月份至 6 月份的 Samsung 財季的平均盈利預期降低了 0.6%,自至 10.4 萬億韓元(約合 90 億美元)。不過,即使是這一下調後的預期也仍舊意味著 Samsung 的季度盈利將創下歷史最高紀錄。

大多數分析師都認為,雖然 Galaxy S4 智能手機的銷售表現弱於預期,但不一定會導致 Samsung 無法實現創紀錄的季度利潤。美國銀行美林公司指出, Samsung 已經將自身業務多樣化,進入了智能手機市場的許多細分市場。

但是,分析師紛紛下調預期之舉還是讓 Samsung 在總額為 2500 億美元的智能手機市場上所佔據的主導地位蒙上了陰影。而與此同時,來自中國的競爭對手正在銳意進取地擴大自身所佔份額,這些競爭對手生產的中端手機的銷售表現強勁。分析師指出, Samsung 在中端手機市場上所佔據的地位相對疲弱。去年,中端手機在 Samsung 總銷售量中所佔比例為不到 15%。

分析師指出,從中期來看, Samsung 必須把重點放在中端手機市場上,原因是高端智能手機市場正在喪失動量,各大廠商都面臨著難以將自身與競爭對手區分開來的困境,而消費者則正盼望著這些廠商能在創新方面取得飛躍。

確切的說, Samsung 並非對這種形勢發展採取了坐視不理的態度,實際上這家公司一直都在逐步擴大自己的產品組合。最近幾個星期以來, Samsung 已經推出了四種新版本的 Galaxy S4 手機,其中包括名為 Galaxy Mini 的廉價手機。而與此相比,自去年 9 月份推出 iPhone 5 智能手機以來,蘋果就一直都沒有推出過新產品。

Samsung 看漲人士還寄希望於定於今年晚些時候發佈的新產品,如平板手機 Galaxy Note 3 等。某些分析師指出,未來華爾街分析師對 Samsung 的業績預期將以保守立場為流行趨勢。「市場對創新的預期已經有所下降,我認為未來 Samsung 發佈新產品時所引發的活躍氣氛將不如以往。」 Byun Hanjoon 說道。 Samsung 股價週一收盤下跌 0.2%,此前曾在上週四的交易中觸及六個月以來的最低水平。

Source : Reuter

Analysts fell under Samsung Electronics Co Ltd’s marketing spell when they made what they now admit were hopelessly optimistic forecasts for its smartphone sales.

Samsung’s huge share of the high-end smartphone market also persuaded some analysts to downplay industry data pointing to a fast-saturating segment, a reality that is already eating into sales of Apple Inc’s iPhone 5.

Woori Investment & Securities, one of South Korea’s largest securities firms, cut its outlook for Samsung’s earnings and target share price on June 5. It was the first to adjust its view.

A massive wave of downgrades has since followed, with forecasters including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs taking a harder look at their assumptions of how well the S4, Samsung’s latest Galaxy smartphone, would actually do.

Sales estimates for the S4 were slashed by as much as 30 percent, stirring investor concerns over Samsung’s mobile devices division – the company’s biggest profit generator.

Investors in the South Korean IT giant have paid dearly. Samsung lost nearly $20 billion in market value in a week as shares plunged following the downgrades.

“I’d say most forecasters including myself had this conviction that they’ll outperform again – because it’s Samsung,” said Byun Hanjoon, an analyst at KB Investment & Securities. “They had beaten expectations before, which led many to believe they are bound to excel again with the S4.”

The S4 sold 10 million sets in just one month of its debut in late April, outperforming its predecessor, the S3.

Yet analysts now say the high-end smartphone segment is slowing, citing lacklustre prospects in Europe and South Korea in particular.

The S4, in reality, also lacks any real wow factor, they say.

“The Street, including Goldman Sachs, admittedly extrapolated the first-quarter earnings momentum through the year,” Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Bang said in a report. “This resulted in very optimistic earnings expectations.”

Most analysts have reduced their estimates for S4 shipments to around 7 million units a month from their previous average expectation of 10 million.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has lowered its S4 sales estimate for this year by 5 million to 65 million units.

Some analysts say a loss in potential sales of 5 million S4 units would cut around $1 billion of Samsung’s operating profit.

“S4 sales are solid. It’s just that some analysts had higher expectations and then they lowered them,” J.K. Shin, head of Samsung’s mobile devices division, told reporters last week.

Over the past month, 17 out of 43 analysts have downgraded their earnings estimates for Samsung, leading to a 0.6 percent drop in their average forecast for the company’s April-to-June earnings to 10.4 trillion won ($9 billion), according to Thomson Reuters StarMine.

The lowered forecast, however, would still be a quarterly record.

Many analysts say weaker-than-expected S4 sales will not necessarily stop Samsung from posting record quarterly profits. The company has diversified into many segments of the smartphone market, Merrill Lynch says.

MID-TIER PHONES

Still, the scale of the downgrades has cast a shadow on Samsung’s dominance in the $250 billion smartphone market.

Doing it no favour, Chinese rivals are aggressively growing their market share, aided by strong sales of mid-tier models – a segment in which Samsung has relatively weak positioning, according to analysts.

The mid-tier segment accounted for less than 15 percent of Samsung’s total shipments last year.

Analysts say Samsung has to focus on this lower tier in the medium term.

The high-end segment is losing momentum, with manufacturers struggling to differentiate themselves and consumers calling for a leap in innovation, they say.

To be sure, Samsung has not sat idle.

It has gradually expanded its offerings. Among four varieties of the S4 introduced in recent weeks, there was one stripped-down version called the Galaxy Mini.

By comparison, Apple has had no new offerings since the iPhone 5 hit the market in September last year.

Samsung bulls are also pinning their hopes on product launches later this year including the Galaxy Note 3, a phone-tablet hybrid.

Some analysts say conservative forecasts will prevail.

“Expectations for innovation have been lowered, and I don’t think there’ll be as much buzz surrounding new product launches as it used to be,” said Byun at KB.

Samsung’s stock, which slumped to a six-month low on Thursday, inched up 0.9 percent on Friday.

你可能會對以下文章有興趣:

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.